Potential M8.7 Megathrust Earthquake Impact in Jakarta to Lampung

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The Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) and the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) have warned of a potential M8.7 megathrust earthquake in the Sunda Strait. The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) presented the results of the modeling of the areas that would be affected.

“Based on shakemap modeling, what kind of shock is 8.7? What is clear is that Lampung, Banten, West Java were shaken by 7-8 MMI (destructive). Moderate to severe damage, including Jakarta, especially the soft ground of Jakarta, the damage could be even more severe,” said BMKG Earthquake and Tsunami Mitigation Coordinator, Daryono in the MNC Trijaya FM Polemic entitled Beware of Megathrust Earthquakes and Hitrometrological Disasters, Saturday (22/1/ 2022).

For tsunami modeling, according to Daryono, the results can be used as a reference because experts have mitigated them using the agreed-upon method. In tsunami modeling, the Sunda Strait, West Java, Bandar Lampung, can reach 15-20m, then it can shrink to the Sunda Strait and rotate to the north of Jakarta, but only 1.5m.

“The important thing is not at high tide because the tsunami can be higher. This includes the impact on the coast of Sumatra,” he added.

In addition, he continued, the BMKG also made a modeling of the hurricane, so that it could know which coastal areas would be inundated, how high and which areas were safe. “This (mitigation) is given to the sons of the region to be a mitigation reference to make mitigation-based arrangements,” he explained.

However, Daryono emphasized, because the Indonesian people are destined to live above plate boundaries, it is a risk that must be faced. So, Indonesia must be able to persist in solving this problem. Not only efforts must be made, but the government also continues to support the installation of complete mitigation tools in the Sunda Strait.

“There are 18 sensor systems, 5 tide gauges, water levels, automatic water systems, IDSL has a KKP, BIG put tide gauge sensors, 2 tsunami sirens placed in Lampung and Anyer, 5 tsunami sirens there,” he said.

Moreover, he added that BMKG also continues to educate the public and relevant policy makers so that they have a response and can reduce risks. His party always conveys to the public that there are indeed dangerous natural processes, but people must understand how to survive.

“Understanding warnings, understanding natural characteristics so that we are safe, there is a strong earthquake that must move away from the coast, then an earthquake that swings for a long time, we must also move away from the coast. We continue to teach the education,” concluded Daryono.